Jamaica's murder figures continue to fall. By early October, the Jamaica Constabulary Force had recorded 407 murders for 2026, down 24 per cent from 534 at the same point last year. That follows sharp declines in each of the two previous years.
This is welcome, and it reflects real work by the security forces and communities. But it raises a question we are hearing more often from boards and finance teams: if crime is down, can we spend less on security?
The honest answer is: maybe — but not because of the national figure.
National trends and your risk are different things
Headline crime statistics measure serious violent crime across the whole country. Your organisation's risk is shaped by something narrower: where your sites are, what you hold, who has access, and how attractive you are as a target.
The crimes that most often affect businesses — theft of stock and equipment, fraud, break-ins, extortion attempts, and losses from inside the organisation — do not necessarily move with the murder rate. Some may even rise as criminal groups shift away from high-profile violence towards lower-risk, financially motivated crime.
Why controls may be part of the reason
If your organisation has had fewer incidents, it is worth asking why. Sometimes the environment really has improved. Often, it is because your controls are working. Cutting guard hours, alarm monitoring or access control because "nothing has happened" is one of the most common ways organisations create the conditions for the next incident.
Recalibrate, don't just reduce
A lower-crime environment is a good moment to reassess — not to cut blindly, but to rebalance. Some controls may be stronger than your current risk justifies. Others may be too weak for risks that have grown, such as fraud, cyber-enabled theft or insider loss.
A proper reassessment asks:
- What incidents have we actually had in the last two years, and what nearly happened?
- Which risks have reduced, and which have grown?
- Which controls are reducing real risk, and which are habit?
- Where can we save without creating a gap?
What this means in practice
- Treat national crime statistics as context, not as your risk assessment.
- Review your own incident and near-miss records before changing any control.
- Look beyond violent crime to theft, fraud and insider risk.
- If you reduce a control, decide in advance what would make you restore it.
- Reassess at least annually, and after any significant change to your sites or operations.
Talk to us about an updated risk assessment. → Risk assessments
Sources: Jamaica Gleaner, 7 October 2026.
